Nick,
It’s always a pleasure to discuss things with you – but always a challenge to not be put off by your attitude when I disagree.
:huh2:
Whether you are a big punter or not – your understanding of how the bookmakers profits come about is flawed.
Let’s get straight to the matter.
1) There is no secret juice slush account.
A bookmakers profit line on an event is simply calculated as :
Profits = stakes received – ( winnings paid + costs + bonuses involved )
Bookmakers DO need money to be lost by players OVERALL to make money – where else do you think it comes from ?
:tooconfus
2) Punters back favourites
Bookmakers have varying degrees of exposure on all events – because no matter how attractively they try to price up underdogs (either with points start or with big money odds) – the underdogs are usually poorly supported.
At any big event there will frequently be plenty of bookmaker spokepeople who shout out that they’ll be taking a loss if a certain results happens. Bookmakers make most profits when upsets occur.
3) Bookmaker Liabilities Are a FACT
In the case of American football results – there are (usually) only two results – and on any given Sunday you can be certain that at least 4-5 matches have a liability result for a bookie.
In the case of the World game of football – 3 results are possible – and thew draw is nearly always a great result for the bookies.
While horseracing is a doddle and there is up to 50% “overorund” on the odds meaning that usually only 1 or 2 horse will cause a liability. Though you may remember an occaision when Vettori rode 7/7 winners on a race day and cost the bookmakers of GBP 120 million on accumulators and speculators.
:notify:
Balancing a book to within about 8% is ideal, as due to the odds that they offer, they’ll BE GREEN ACROSS THE BOARD, meaning that they’ll make a profit no matter what result occurs – but it only happens about half the time.
I have worked with over half a dozen bookies directly when promoting their offers – visited on site – and got a pretty good feeling for their ranges – and I’m sure I’d be giving away no secrets if I said that they actually allow themselves to have a percentage threshold as a liability on an event.
You can rant, rave and insult me – but you’re living in a conspiracy theory of your own on this one.
:satisfied