I will add some things about the Italy vs Australia game
Italy plays down to the level of their opponents very often, and this usually means the game will be close, and gives their opponents a chance to spring the upset
The USA game was a perfect example of that, their qualifier vs Belarus was the same, they gave up 3 goals in that one, even the last game they lost was against Slovenia of all teams, ties against teams like Norway and Scotland also all very recently
Strange team, they have the best overall record against the big boys in the soccer world all time, but can really go off against the cheaper teams…they have always been that way, football historians will remember the biggest upset in world cup history was Italy losing to Korea in 1966 in a must win game that eliminated Italy, it was Korea’s first ever win in any world cup match
An upset here is not the most improbable thing…the biggest reason is that they are on the German side of the draw, and the Germans don’t ever want to play Italy(they always lose to Italy)…favouritism towards the host team by referees is no longer a possibility, it is a sure thing, if u watched the game today, a German player reached up, grabbed the ball with his hands right in front of the ref, and the ref did nothing…i thought i was hallucinating, but i wasn’t…then the ref has the nerve to kick Sweden’s most experienced defender out of the game and make them play with one less man for over an hour, on what was hardly a bookable offence.
So after considering all those things, you could make a case for an upset, if you think those factors will come in to play…but i am of the belief that the best team will win, and the best team in here is without doubt Italy
My first thoughts were that Italy would win easy, and i still think that is likely, but after considering the fact that the refs might play apart to help the home team by getting Italy out, and 2 of Italy’s starting 4 defenders are out of this game, and the untimely allegations of Italian players gambling on games…all of these things do not help matters