I believe its fairly accurate. I would give the repeal shot about 40-50% myself. Just based on the number of Democrats who voted for HR4111 initially. Remember, We don’t need to necessarily repeal this law to keep online gambling alive. A law can be on the books, but if it’s generally unenforced, well; it might as well not be. This administration of ours directs the agency. The not embattled; DOJ is the one who has been calling all the shots in this war against online gambling. When the agenda of the Administration changes; or the Admin changes itself. The law can be increasingly enforced or not enforced at all.
With that said; we can increase the probablility of the law being repealed by using the same vehicle it was used to pass in the first place. For Example, Bush is most certainly going to VETO the Recent IRAQ funding bill with a deadline wothdraw attached. Well lets say our friend Frank is able to attach the Repeal to a new Iraq funding without the dateline fluff. Well, it may fly through with flying colors.