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Some things to consider:
Pletcher looks good with Sunriver and Bluegrass Cat, the 2 favourites
but…
Pletcher is 0-4 in the Belmont, never hitting the board
Bluegrass Cat is coming in to the race looking very much like another Pletcher horse who also ran 2nd in the Derby before getting laid out in the Belmont…that was Invisible Ink
Sunriver looks decent, but has yet to beat any of the top 3 year olds, those odds might be a bit low for a horse that has yet to prove he belongs with the best, he should handle the distance and is coming in off a good prep
Bob and John is interesting, he threw in a crapper in the Derby and his DI profile suggests he might struggle going even longer, but trainer Baffert hits the board at a 50% rate in this race and he is coming in off multiple bullet works
Hemingway’s Key can go the distance and is improving with every start, but he might still be a bit short with his development, trainer Zito hits the board 53% of the time in this race, at his home track
Steppenwolfer has the best DI profile in here, it is a guaranteed lock that he will love the added distance, look closely, he gets better every time he goes longer, he has never been off the board in his life on the dirt, including a 3rd place finish in the Derby in his last start…very serious contender
Oh So Awesome will get the distance, since i own awesomeagain.com, i know his bloodline pretty good, its tough to get a good read on this guy, he has 1 race on the dirt over a sloppy track which i think he will improve on in here, with added Lasix i expect he’ll run a Beyer of 96-99 in the Belmont, that should put him near the top, but he’s a bit of a shot in the dark
High Finance is a horse that i like in here for a few reasons…he is improving fast, and his DI profile suggests he will get the distance, he has never missed the board in his career, he is peaking just now, running at a distance of a mile or over, the only horse to beat him so far was Bernardini, my legendary Preakness pick, i give this guy a big shot at enormous odds, he is 1-1 at Belmont, and trainer Violette is pretty good, even though he’s taking a big jump up in class, making his Stakes debut, he is coming in off 2 consecutive romp wins
Jazil shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance, but this race has never been very friendly to closers who like to come from way out of it like he does
Sacred Light…i don’t get the form here, it says he got beat by Nolan’s Cat last time out, Nolans Cat ran in this race last year, something got screwed up there
This race is particularly tough to handicap, a lot of horses can win it, very close
I will take my shot with High Finance at big odds, and prolly box him up in tri’s with others i think will benefit from the extra distance, Steppenwolfer, Hemingways Key, Oh So Awesome…going for the moon here with the payout probability…Even though others look better on form, i’m throwing them out because they are questionable at low odds, and this race is wide open
Good luck
You’ve made some good points and I think the best one is that this is a hard race to handicap and there are quite a few horses in it that could win. I’ll stick to my picks, though. I think your choice does have a good shot and going for a price in a race like this is the way to go. As for Oh So Awesome, I think they didn’t ask for much in the race on the dirt and were aiming for this race. I look at that as a conditioning race and think this time the horse will be asked for more and has the pedigree and racing experience to deliver.
I wouldn’t normally play this race but since its the Belmont I’ll give it a shot.
Forget everything i said
i’m taking 11, 12, 8
its too wide open in here, my instinct is putting me on the 11, Steppenwolfer, and something about this Sacred Light, so i’m workin them both WPS, exacta, triacta, throwin out the form on this one and goin with the voices in my head
i see you threw out the 12 completely, geez, wouldnt that suck if he totalled your triacta ticket…trainer Hoffmans has only entered this race once in his life, and he won it, he’s not one of those “i’m a dreamer” type trainers, if he brought this horse here, he probably thinks he can win it
good luck
I know what you mean, Nick. The 12 also has some distance on the dam’s side and that is what I look for. Maybe it will get a piece of this but since it was beaten by Bob and John and Brother Derek I threw it out. This race is really wide open so it is just as well to go with the voices.
Mine tell me Oh So Awesome is going to do well today and that last race was a conditioning race. On the other hand there are others that look like they have better chances based on the level of competition they have faced and their trainers. Speaking of trainers, I do respect Hoffmans in here.
It seems one of us should get something since we are picking three different horses to key on and each of those has a good shot here. A betting service sent me an email about keying Jazil on top and what a great bet it was. It also touted Steppenwolfer. Time will tell. Fortunately I don’t have to make a living handicapping races like this. I had the winner and exacta in the Preakness, but I’ve bet it all back on this race.
Well as usual I had the exacta but not the tri. Oh So Awesome got off to such a poor start he never had a chance. Deputy Glitters folded on the lead as predicted but Bluegrass Cat couldn’t hold off Jazil who ran a great race working his way through traffic to post a nice win.
You were right about Pletcher, Nick. I think from now on I stick with win bets and exactas. That is the only way for me to make any money at this. Wish I was swift enough to put together tri bets but I just can’t make a profit at them.
It is the same with the dogs, lots of exactas and nice winners, but few tris.
I had two out of the three exactas in the Triple Crown, but only one winner, Bernardini.
Well, as we old horseplayers always say, “There’s always fresh.”
Jazil was the one
damn that Steppenwolfer, if only he got up for 3rd it woulda been nice, just missed, oh so awesome ran good after spotting the field 10 lengths at the start, got up for 5th, tough luck there, woulda hit the board
yet after all that i managed to make a few bucks, Pinnacle on those head to matchups is the best, giving out jazil at +150 vs the other contenders
took 8-11-12 WPS, and boxed em up in the ex and tri…i never take 3 horses across the board in one race, lucky i did today…Jazil was the last WPS bet i took, when u said u were tipped off on him, i was too from some place, that was the clincher…i knew one of those 3 would win, at 5-1+ odds made it worth betting all 3 mathematically
this is becoming a familiar pattern, lose the derby, win the preaky, win the belmont…i need to figure out something for the derby, it is my nemesis
see u at the breeders cup
The most important thing here is what i said in another thread
#8 wins the derby
#8 wins the preakywho’s #8 in the belmont ?
the answer: Jazil was #8
not that i’m superstitious or anything
Well thats a hoot, all that handicapping and it comes down to a numbers thing. I didn’t even think of that until you just reminded me again.
