Political betting and the death of Osama bin Laden
As the last weekend came to a close, a long-standing international conflict also came to an end as the U.S. government finally closed in on Osama bin Laden, the Muslim leader believed to have orchestrated the September 11, 2011 bombings.
Online sportsbooks offer odds for virtually any kind of major event, from sports to celebrities to awards shows and politics to even, yes, wars. With that in mind, Casino Affiliate Programs is checking in with what the major oddsmakers had to say about bin Laden’s death.
No huge payouts … this time
ASports book Intrade may be one of the best-known oddsmakers for political and non-sports events. According to the site, there was a four percent chance of bin Laden’s being killed or captured before June.
“When news broke there was a flurry of activity, and the price jumped,” Carl Wolfenden, Intrade’s Exchange Operations Manger, told Covers.com. “But trading volumes were small once word was out — there wasn’t really anyone out there willing to take a position that bin Laden wasn’t dead.”
Wolfenden also said that, because the “hunt” for bin Laden had been going on for so long, there were no “huge winner or losers in the market”, meaning bettors who’d accurately predicted (or bet against) the timing of the killing.
The Obama factor
As Gambling911.com points out, the timing of the announcement of bin Laden’s death was somewhat ironic: In certain U.S. time zones, the announcement interrupted the latest episode of Donald Trump’s The Apprentice. Trump is exploring a presidential run and has criticized President Obama’s performance in the United States’ war against terrorism. (Just the day before the announcement, Obama had good-naturedly excoriated Trump at the annual White House Correspondents dinner.)
Within minutes of the announcement, social networking sites lit up with the news, with Americans (and pretty much everyone else) debating the meaning, the means, and the effect of the killing.
And, as many have noted, this political news is likely to direct other political odds: U.S. President Barack Obama is now much more favored to win re-election.
“This is good news for Obama, who has had a tough time in the polls lately,” notes Bodog Beat.
Pre-announcement: 58-60 percent
Post-announcement: 63 to 69.9 percent
The message for betting affiliates? Keep up with trends — not just sports and celebrity activity, but political news can be a powerful motivator for some to bet online.
Keeping on top of the news that impacts those trends and headlines, such as what we saw over the weekend, can give you a head-start in marketing that news on your site, and on the social media pages that lead to your site.
With headlines as big as this, any part of the traffic you can capture will help you to grow your business in the future.