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  1. #1
    Banned from CAP nick777's Avatar
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    Default Champions League Soccer Sept 13 Games

    For the few guys who were riding the World Cup with me here and missed the footy, i'm gonna share my bets

    I took...

    18 goals and under total for all games at +130

    The reasoning...

    4 out of the 8 games feature teams from France and Portugal, defensive minded teams, while only 1 team from Spain is playing, and that is against a French team. The high scoring Spanish teams combined for 11 goals in 2 of the games yesterday, me thinks it look different for today

    Home team wins 3 games or less at +150

    5 home teams won yesterday from 8 games, and only one visiting team from the 8 managed to score, that is as lopsided as it gets. I think the results yesterday really influenced the betting line for today's games in both my first 2 selections, so i took the inflated odds, as i don't expect a repeat of yesterday, i see the visitors performing much better today.

    Celtic +1.5 goals at +105

    I always take these bets, you have 2 British teams going head to head, Celtic and Man United, so you know the styles of play will make for a closer match than what it says on paper

    I also bet the final score here to be 1-1 at +1050 and Celtic + 1 goal at +195

    Lyon vs Real Madrid 1-1 final at +620

    Just seems like a probale outcome at nice odds

    Benfica to keep a clean sheet at +215

    Kobenhavn is missing their starting striker and Benfica is just solid at the back, reaching the quarter-finals last year, shutting out eventual winners Barcelona and defending champs Liverpool twice in the playoff stage

    Arsenal - 0.5 goals at +168

    Just a deadly team, especially on the road, shoulda won this tournament last year, they were the best team(were winning 1-0 with 15 minutes left in the finals, got their goalie booted out, back up goalie gave up 2 soft goals after Henry missed a breakaway that woulda made it 2-0), won their 1st 4 road games in this tourney last year, only defeat on the road came in the final vs Barcelona

    AEK +2 and +1.5 goals at +115

    No idea why i took this, they are a 24-1 underdog to win this game vs AC Milan in Italy, i'm hoping Giussepe shows them mercy and beats them by one goal

    *Above odds available at Betfair and Pinnacle


    I just noticed when checking my pending wagers that i got the Minnesota Twins and LA Dodgers to win the World Series at over 50-1 odds each, totally forgot about those, my only 2 baseball bets all year believe it or not, they are kickin ass looks like

    Anyway, my little legal disclaimer here

    Those bets look damn good to me, whether they cash in or not won't change that fact, so please wager at your own risk

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  2. #2
    Banned from CAP nick777's Avatar
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    So in the 4 games involving teams from France and Portugal there were a total of 4 goals, as anticipated, but it still wasn't enough to keep the overall total under 18, a last minute goal in one of the games just ruined that bet

    Home teams won 3 games, so that one is a winner @+150

    Celtic +1.5 goals is a winner(2-3 final)@+105

    Benfica to keep a clean sheet is a winner(0-0 final)@+215

    Arsenal -0.5 goals is a winner(2-1 final)@+168

    AEK +2 goals is a loser(0-3 final)

    Not a perfect day, but pretty good, over half the picks hit at + money lines

    And since nobody seems to care, i will do no more picks again
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    Nick.

    I watch much football. I read much more football. I bet mostly football these days. I don't even write that much about football betting on the blog. I do read your WC selections. I don't post about football here much.

    Your football picks and knowledge are sound. They probably belong in a column somewhere.

    Thanks for all the posts. A couple of your advices were very standout and were taken on board in some way, shape or form, successfuly

    Be well.
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  4. #4
    Banned from CAP nick777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyl
    Nick.

    I watch much football. I read much more football. I bet mostly football these days. I don't even write that much about football betting on the blog. I do read your WC selections. I don't post about football here much.

    Your football picks and knowledge are sound. They probably belong in a column somewhere.

    Thanks for all the posts. A couple of your advices were very standout and were taken on board in some way, shape or form, successfuly

    Be well.
    Hey, that's great to hear, i wish they could've all been perfect picks

    Valencia caught my eye

    I'm gonna try to get 40-1 on them, might have to wait til the playoff round, they are sitting around 25-1 now and have some easy games coming up in the group stage

    That Morientes has gotta be the most underrated player i've ever seen in my life, the guy has won the Champions League 4 times with 3 different clubs, and lost once in the finals with Monaco as the tournaments leading goal scorer, it's just crazy how many teams overlook his talent, and basically give him away.

    I've seen this guy just bring a team to life over and over again, now these young guys like Villa are full of confidence with him around, i see some potential to go far

    Looking through the roster

    2 World Cup Forwards
    5 World Cup Midfielders
    4 World Cup Defenders
    1 World Cup Goalie

    And World Youth titles and Olympic Gold medals all over the place in that lineup, so they got a bit of class going for them

    Look like one of those darkhorses i like so much

    Another thing i like about them is that they don't mind losing, they just roll it mujo tranquillo until it's time to hit the gas, that means i'll get good odds on them eventually

    Beware of the the bat

    vcf1.gif
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    Morientes while at Liverpool was shockingly inneffective. Just woeful, which is why they let him go.

    Ladbrokes are the biggest about Valencia at the moment (22/1). I will wait and see if you get anywhere near 40's.

    I have not noted you write much about football on your sites. How come?
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  6. #6
    Banned from CAP nick777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyl
    Morientes while at Liverpool was shockingly inneffective. Just woeful, which is why they let him go.

    Ladbrokes are the biggest about Valencia at the moment (22/1). I will wait and see if you get anywhere near 40's.

    I have not noted you write much about football on your sites. How come?

    I don't write much on my sites, although a few people have mentioned that i should, it's because i have over 50 sites and writing, analyzing, etc, would take quite a bit of time to do regularly

    In the future i plan to cut down on my sites and keep only the best performers, then i can start writing, i still have about 10 unfinished projects i'm working on at the moment

    Actually Betfair is giving out 24-1 on Valencia, which is probably why i use them for most of my action, futures in particular, Lyon is 13-1, another impressive team, who have been knocking at the door of late, just getting a little bit better each time around as they gain experience.

    As usual, Barcelona and Chelsea are the favourites, that's 2-3 years in a row now, FIFA was very friendly to Barca last year, kicking out the opposing teams players and enforcing the benefit of the Ronaldinho dive rule, they were a good team, but a questionable champion, they looked very beatable at times

    Liverpool misplayed Morientes, just like Real Madrid and the Spanish national team did, he is the type of player who has to be in the game always, his greatest assets are instincts and timing, when these teams relugate him to bench duty it throws off his timing and dullens those instincts, which is why he was unproductive, given regular duty like he had at Monaco, and now Valencia, and at times with Real and Spain, he is an awesome goal scoring machine

    He was a key addition to Liverpool when they won the Champions League, although he was club tied and unable to compete in the tourney, he did bring 3 Champions League titles to the dressing room, and gave Garcia, Cisse, Baros, some good rest subbing in for them in the Premiership, i honestly don't believe Liverpool could have won without him

    These new age coaches like to keep their forwards fresh by subbing and resting them constantly, and in most cases it is a great tactic, however, Morientes is an exception to this rule because, as i said earlier, his greatest attributes are timing and instinct, whereass other forwards rely on speed and power, so they benefit from the freshening, Morientes doesn't.

    I get overly analytical and critical at times, but for me the most important thing is not who has the best players, but who gets the most out of the players they have, paper teams like Real Madrid, Chelsea, AC Milan, who appear unbeatable from looking at their lineup seem to eventually get run off the field by my overachievers at big odds, at least this has been the trend of late, you need to run, you can't be like Real and think you will free kick your way to glory

    Let me get out my little tribute to Morientes here, who seems to get the rolly eyes when i mention him as possibly the best striker in the world

    Wins the Champions League with Real, then Real loans him to Monaco, where he scores 2 goals in the decisive semi-final match for Monaco and eliminates Real Madrid from the tournament

    Scores winning goal in Champions League final for Real Madrid

    http://www.uefa.com/competitions/UCL...999/intro.html

    Another Champions League win, scoring the winning goal in the semis to get Real there

    http://www.uefa.com/competitions/UCL...997/intro.html

    Singlehandedly eliminated Chelsea from the Champions League in the semis while playing for Monaco in a huge upset, led the tournament in goals, prior to that led Monaco to an upset elimination of Real in the quarters, they were down by 3 goals to Real with 45 minutes left

    http://www.uefa.com/Competitions/UCL...677/index.html

    http://www.uefa.com/Competitions/UCL...680/index.html

    http://www.uefa.com/Competitions/UCL...128/index.html

    The man is a Champions League highlight reel, appearing on more Champions League cover pages than any other player in the games history

    30 Champions League goals

    http://www.futbal.org/EC1.scorers.ph...do%20Morientes

    http://www.futbal.org/EC1.scorers.php

    Top 10 all time

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europea...gue_statistics

    Bio & career stats

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Morientes

    http://www.footballdatabase.com/inde...s_Sánchez

    25 Goals in 38 matches for Spain in International competition

    Morientes made his debut for Spain against Sweden in 1998, scoring twice in the first five minutes. He scored twice more against Bulgaria in the 1998 FIFA World Cup finals but was left out of the UEFA EURO 2000™ squad. The striker returned for Korea/Japan and was in the goals again, registering twice in the 3-1 win against Paraguay and once in the second-round defeat of the Republic of Ireland. At UEFA EURO 2004™, Morientes scored one of Spain's two goals. However, after coming off the bench for a September 2004 World Cup qualifier against Bosnia-Herzegovina, he was dropped due to his lack of club football

    I just call buddy "Cash", cuz that's what he's been to me, i cashed big with him on Monaco's huge run as 100-1 shot, and on Real Madrid, back in the day when they were good

    Interesting that Valencia were beaten finalists in this tourney twice in the last seven years, beaten once by Morientes' goal in the finals against Real Madrid, i remember that game very well, Valencia was the favourite and i had bet on Real

    So i guess you can see why i'm giving this team a shot to win this thing, aside from the obvious Morientes factor, they have a very solid and creative midfield, and fellow striker Villa was impressive in the just completed World Cup, he was the betting favourite to lead the World Cup in goals at the start, those are both key additions, as well as Portuegese international Viana who played huge for Portugal in the just done World Cup when they eliminated England, former Arsenal man, Brazilian Edu is also a new face, Portuegese defender Miguel, another huge World Cup performer has also been added, former Chelsea man Del Horno is another new face, Argentinian Ayala with 100 international caps for Argentina is back from injury, Albiol, the impressive youngster who just scored in their prior Champions League match is making his debut this season as a starter, $25 million transfer(that should be Euro currency)Joaquin has also been added to the midfield, alongside Baraja, Albelda, Vincente, and the rest

    Its a solid team, captained by goalie Canizares with over 500 games to his credit, just a nice blend of youth, experience, creativity, and running ability on this team

    I'm gonna put a little bit on them at 24-1, just in case i never see those odds again, but i suspect i'll get over 40-1 at some point, then i'll really dump on them

    Also looking at the "first time winners" odds at +116, i'm getting both Valencia and Lyon there, as well as Chelsea and Arsenal, and a couple decent Portuegese teams, so i'm gonna take that too

    And i also put some money on Carew from Lyon as top scorer at 170-1 odds, thats as high as i've ever seen his odds, he has a slight hamstring injury, but should return soon, not a great bet since Lyon like to circulate their forwards, Govou, Fred, Wilthord, but he does have 17 career Champions League goals from limited play, and there wasn't a lot of value on the other players in the market, i would rather have taken Morientes but he's listed at 9-1 now and wasn't even on the original list of contenders prior to match #1.
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    Funnily enough..

    It had not gone unnoticed Morientes is a dangerous striker. Especially noteworthy for me is he is a big game player. Unlike dare I say - Theirry Henry (generally).

    The thing was, I would watch football with Liverpool fans who said he needs 5 chances to get into the game.

    He let me down every time and made me look like a mug. His performances were truly dreadful at times for the Scousers. Seemingly always when I was watching with others who had a dim (unwarranted imo) view of the player.
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    Banned from CAP nick777's Avatar
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    Funnily enough..

    It had not gone unnoticed Morientes is a dangerous striker. Especially noteworthy for me is he is a big game player. Unlike dare I say - Theirry Henry (generally).

    The thing was, I would watch football with Liverpool fans who said he needs 5 chances to get into the game.

    He let me down every time and made me look like a mug. His performances were truly dreadful at times for the Scousers. Seemingly always when I was watching with others who had a dim (unwarranted imo) view of the player




    Well i don't know, the same could be said for my career, with some teams i played great, with others i was invisible, it's common with strikers, it really depends on the team and coach, and how they use you, another Morientes in England impersonation award goes to Kezman when he was with Chelsea

    The player, assuming he keeps in good shape, does not suddenly become cheap and lose his skills when joining a new team

    Speaking of cheap, have you caught Man United, they look just terrible, talk about a team living off past glories, what a disaster that defence is, since when is Wes Brown an EPL caliber player, i've seen him for 5 years now and have yet to see him be useful, you can take a 15 year old kid whose never kicked a ball, let him train with Man United for 5 years and he'll be better

    Rooney looks like crap, busy writing books, blowing millions on poker, and tatooing girly names all over himself, that boy needs a serious beating

    Ronaldo is the only quality on that team these days, i don't get Ferguson, what is his problem, why do you go picking up players if you don't plan on ever using them, Vidic is a quality defender, his resume is more impressive than what is currently playing defence there, and they paid 10 million pounds for him, same with Sung, he was awesome for PSV, Man Utd break out the bank for him and he hardly ever plays

    Anyway, i don't get some of these characters

    Let me do my Champs League thing, i've been working on this page here

    http://www.superiorgaming.net/soccer.html

    It's loaded with goodies, Champs League is towards the bottom, i went through the trouble of listing the top teams of the past decade using my own little system, for my own satisfaction, i spent the past 3 days counting numbers

    Here are the top 10 Euro clubs of the past 10 years

    1- Real Madrid 5.21
    2- Barcelona 4.74
    3- Bayern 4.66
    4- AC Milan 4.64
    5- Man United 4.54
    6- Chelsea 4.51
    7- Valencia 4.38
    8- Liverpool 4.25
    9- Juventus 3.95
    10- Arsenal 3.92

    From that list

    2- Barcelona
    6- Chelsea
    7- Valencia
    10- Arsenal

    Appear to be peaking, while the others show a drop off or have levelled out

    Also add

    11- Lyon 3.79
    13- Inter 3.56

    In peak form

    Since the last 3 finals have featured 6 different finalists, it's safe to say that playing so many top quality matches takes a toll physically on a team, which is why there has never been a back to back winner in this tournament

    So that leaves me with

    Chelsea
    Valencia

    as the teams to beat, and

    Lyon
    Inter

    as the darkhorses

    It looks so easy sometimes

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