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I had asked Lou and Dominique about offering this at CAP and got the green light.
I’m a Washington guy who has needed to make changes and that’s the only reason I’ve decided to share this. This is something that makes cash… EVERY TIME I RUN THIS PROMOTION I MAKE MONEY.
I got 171 downloads in 3 days at CPays … I got 153 downloads at Brightshare with 750 plus download attempts that registered as clickthroughs ? I got a check for $4,200 from 888 for a 21 days stretch before they cut me out of their CPA. It’s made money at Earn United, Wager Share and others.
This isn’t speculation and it isn’t something that “might” work … It’s proven.
IF YOU HAVE TRAFFIC YOU CAN MAKE CASH WITH THIS and the best part is it won’t take away from what you already have. It will add something to your site.
It involves a flash craps promotion that I’ve been running the past year. It’s totally turnkey.
I program it in flash and although the content isn’t revoultionary the presentation is very tight. 35% of all players who learn the betting strategy will download the casino software to test it. It’s a 5 step process to sign the player and as I mentioned it’s all programmed in flash and very compelling.
I offer downloads only and you would need to do the same.
The banner below would placed on your site. It’s relatively small (19kb). I do have several. I program each individually. Spend just a minute to check it out and see how the promotion works.
http://crapsschool.com/capDemo.html
So what about the bucks ?
80 /20 I’ll program it anyway you want. Update it anytime you want. Use any links you want. You handle the money. All I ask for is 20% of the revenue from the promotion.
Let me suggest this… Try it for a week free. Send me your direct download links let me program a package for you and you can try it on your site. If it’s not as good as I say it is, pull it… you don’t owe me anything.
I can put it together in about 2 days and give you the banner. I’ll play it straight up with you…nothing goofy and I would need the same assurance from you. If you can agree that 80% of something good is better than 100% of nothing, you can’t afford not to try this for a week.
P.M. me for more info …
Thanks,
Robert 1-800-644-2201Honestly I like this idea. Probably the best feature is the programing language. Whether or not it converts will have to be seen, then again a week of free use sounds fair to me.
I tend to gravitate towards new ideas, this seems to be one of them. Expect a PM early next week. greek39
So you get more signups by selling snake oil?
Why not just put a big banner that says “Deposit $1000 at these casinos and you’ll become a millionaire!!” Kind of like Jackpot Factory did recently, come to think of it.
I can’t imagine many reputable/honest affils would want to touch this.
Am I missing something here? I don’t quite see this idea being scandelous. But hey I could always be wrong. greek39
He’s proposing a betting strategy which he says will make the player a winner at internet Craps.
As every affiliate should know (hopefully) there is no possible way of overcoming the house advantage. In the long run the player will always lose according to the mathematics of the game – for Craps, he will lose around 0.85% of his money over time. This is as certain as it is certain that a fair coin will come up heads 50% of the time.
Read more on this subject here:
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.htmlThis includes the Wizard of Odds Betting System Challenge – for 6 years he offered $20k to any reader who could prove mathematically that any kind of betting system (such as proposed by the OP of this thread) could overcome the HA of any casino game. He eventually took it down because he got a lot of time wasters, but obviously no-one was ever able to claim the $20k because it’s impossible.
Therefore what the OP is proposing is snake oil – he gets more depositors by suggesting to his readers that they can win at craps using his system. They can’t, so he is a liar and getting their money under false pretences.
I would be very worried if any reputable affiliate would want to use this.
Maybe I am missing something here too. I didn’t see any place where he guarantees these players are going to win. But I just skimmed through it. Many people sell strategies in ebooks and such and I think it is a little unreasonable to say he is an underhanded liar for making a strategy work to get signups. I think the whole thing is smart and is simply a way to coax people into signing up. Similar to the way we all have free games on our website, hoping our visitors get the fever and want to play.
I see nothing wrong with it either.
No where do I see where it says “Guaranteed” that would be foolish, it does say for “Optimum” results to follow the program.
By the way, people do win with all kinds of different strategies, the trick is to walk away at the right time, which he also mentions.
dalster44
When you first go to it a popup says:
“This strategy was tested Mid May 2006 against 5 leading makers of Internet Casino Software. Player survey indicates Playtech software being statistically most vulnerable to this strategy.”He also says, during the Learn It part, “for optimum results there should be no deviation from this strategy”
This is misleading. Firstly, Playtech is not vulnerable to anything – he merely means “using this system I happened , by luck, to make more at Playtech than I did elsewhere.” Secondly, there are no “optimum results” – his system will lose 0.85% for the player over time, just as any other craps system will. The player could use his system, or they could flat-bet, or they could martingale – it makes no difference, over the long run they will always lose the same amount.
I agree that he hasn’t said emphatically “this will make you rich”. Perhaps you think that makes it acceptable, but I don’t.
Here’s an example: I play roulette for 5 days, playing 4 hours a day. I record 20,000 spins during that time. Every time I simply bet $10 on number 20.
At the end of the session I record a total win of $5000.
I then put on my affiliate site “I bet $10 on number 20 for 20,000 spins and I won $5000. My results indicate that Playtech is most statistically vulnerable to this technique, and for best results you should always bet $10 on number 20. Click here to try yourself!”
Is that misleading? Well, saying ‘statistically vulnerable to’ is misleading, because a) it isn’t b) what I should say is “I had best results at Playtech”, but by using big words and implying I actually tested it in some scientific way, I am dressing it up as something it isn’t. Also, by even putting the info on the site, I am implicitly implying that it works – why would I mention it otherwise?
What he is suggesting here is no different to the hundreds of ‘Get rich quick playing roulette/craps/blackjack’ systems available on the internet. It’s a fallacy designed to get money from those who don’t understand how casinos and mathematics work.
That said, I retract calling him a liar – I have no evidence that he’s cynically trying to manipulate players into believing they can win with this system, it may be that he actually believes it himself.
However I do think that this is misleading advertising.
One final example – would a consumer brand, let’s say Coca Cola, be allowed to run an advert that said “in a recent survey, 55% of respondents reported better sexual performance after drinking three cans of Coke?” No they wouldn’t, even if they did have one survey with those results.
So are you saying that playing simple basic strategy for games played such as BJ, VP and Craps is not better than betting on instinct?
Dominique wrote:So are you saying that playing simple basic strategy for games played such as BJ, VP and Craps is not better than betting on instinct?Would you say there’s a difference between “basic strategy,” “a system,” and “instinct?”
Maybe it depends on your understanding of mathematics and probability theory. Maybe instinct is fun for non statistical people, but it usually costs them money.
“Basic strategy” usually is a system that anyone can easily remember that reduces house odds. Do you know what that is for craps? It is very simple.
Take all of the house odds that you can. Bet Don’t Pass every time. That’s it. Basic strategy for craps.
If Playtech allows you to take more odds than other software, then Playtech casinos *would* be more vulnerable because it would lower their house edge. So, that can be a true statement. I don’t know and don’t care to go look right now. However, the house will have some statistical edge no matter what odds you take and no matter how you bet Don’t Pass or when you bet Don’t Pass.
Some people like systems so they can play without thinking. I don’t really care how people play, but I do think people who understand statistics should be careful when helping (or pretending to help) those that don’t.
Oneguy2nv wrote:Would you say there’s a difference between “basic strategy,” “a system,” and “instinct?”I most certainly would, but wanted to hear what howardmoon thought. I got the impression that he didn’t consider basic strategy valid, but wasn’t sure.
You can toss all the betting strategies out the window for online gambling anyway unless your a nickel dime bettor. It is the most rigged garbage in the world. No strategies work. When the casino decides it needs to make money it does just that with the most unlikely cards. I should have learned 4 years ago playing at a microgaming casino. I got a nice score on video poker and I went to play caribbean stud. I started out betting $5 a hand and got up another couple hundred. Then I raised the bet to $25 a hand backing it with $50 and this is what happened. The dealer got a straight flush, 4 of a kind, 2 full houses, a straight, and a flush all within 10 hands. No exageration here people. And this is stud poker, no draws. Now I would have a better shot at hitting the powerball twice in my lifetime than to see that rigged garbage again. I have played thousands upon thousands of hands and I have not once seen a straight flush or 4 of a kind, let alone all within 10 hands. It is near impossible and tack on the full houses ect… It was clear the casino just wanted to take their money back. My last bs session at an online casino was the last straw for me. 4 years playing against a computer that cant lose is enough and I will make it my lifes mission never again to donate one red cent against a damn computer.
It must be nice to own a casino that never has a losing day. If one player gets hot the software just evens it out with the other players. But I can assure you as an avid gambler, you can toss the rng out the window. Just look at how many players you have that cash out in this business. Anyway, didn’t mean to deter the thread, but it is my feeling that any strategy for online casinos is worthless. And I would be willing to bet that if there are any avid gamblers here that bets more than $5 a hand they will have the same sentiments as I do. I do believe the slots are fair as they are set up to payout a certain % just like vegas. My whole contention here is that the table games are set up the same way which means random number generator my ass.
Dominique wrote:So are you saying that playing simple basic strategy for games played such as BJ, VP and Craps is not better than betting on instinct?Oh of course it is. That’s the correct way to play, simple as that. Any site that tells a user how to play basic strategy is helping to ensure that they lose the least possible and therefore providing a useful service.
But the OPs strategy implies it does more than that – it implies it helps you win, rather than simply lose as little as possible.
Of course I have nothing against basic strategy – and if there was a strategy that really meant you could win (beat the HA), then I’d have nothing against that either
But the latter doesn’t exist, so what I take issue with is any site that claims it does exist.I feel that the OPs strategy unrealistically sets the expectation that it is possible to ‘beat the house’ at craps. Furthermore it does this in a way that encourages people to sign up and try real money to test it. Therefore it is misleading and, in my opinion, dishonest.
oneguy2nv wrote:If Playtech allows you to take more odds than other software, then Playtech casinos *would* be more vulnerable because it would lower their house edge. So, that can be a true statement. I don’t know and don’t care to go look right now. However, the house will have some statistical edge no matter what odds you take and no matter how you bet Don’t Pass or when you bet Don’t Pass.Actually you’re right here – I just checked WOO and Playtech does have better odds than some other casinos. Their HA is around 0.47% compared to 0.85%.
So yes, it is correct to say that Playtech is the best (or one of the best) places to play craps.
But as you say, that simply means you lose less – not that you can ever expect to win (in the long run).
What I take issue with is the fact that the OP’s site seems to heavily imply that this is a winning strategy. In fact his strategy makes no difference whatsoever – you will win, lose, or draw just as often without the strategy as you will with it, and your overall lose will be just the same with or without it. (As always, in the long run)
Looking at his site again, these are the statements I take issue with:
“Random sequence is not programmed in an internet casino. The software simply delivers winning percentage to the casino. This fact creates the vulnerability exploited by the system”
This is complete nonsense. All (reputable) online casino play is governed by a random number generator. It will generate a random number that is then translated into a game result – in Craps, it will generate a random number that becomes the dice throw.
The software absolutely does not “deliver a winning percentage to the casino” – it simply generates random results. It is the rules of the game that govern the winning percentage.
There is no ‘vulnerability’ at all – the last sentence above is therefore pure falacy. This system will win just the same as flat betting.
“Player survey indicates Playtech software as being most statistically vunerable to this strategy”
Again, pure fantasy. Yes you lose less on Playtech because their rules are better. But it’s not ‘vulnerable’ to anything.
If I devised a craps system that involved standing on one leg, rubbing my stomach and shouting “wibble!” every time I placed a Don’t Pass bet, I would find that I would do better at Playtech than I would at other casinos. This does not indicate that Playtech is vulnerable to my system, or indeed that my system does anything at all.
And finally – the standard question/test of any gambling system. If it really works, why isn’t the OP out using making lots of money rather than offering it free to his affiliate users?
It doesn’t work, it’s snake oil, and the OP hopes to attract gamblers who think they can beat the house using his system. In my book that’s dishonest.
Basic strategy is basic bullshi*. It all boils down to the little percentages on the PWC reports. Any statistician will tell you the payouts will be reached over time with some fluctuation up or down until that point.
It´s like trying to beat the index of a stock exchange: Some people manage to do it over a few years but they won´t be able to do it assuming long time horizons.
The only place where strategy works is poker. With all other “gambling” you are mislead, believing that strategy can give you an edge. The only edge to watch is the house edge.
Goldfinger wrote:Basic strategy is basic bullshi*. It all boils down to the little percentages on the PWC reports. Any statistician will tell you the payouts will be reached over time with some fluctuation up or down until that point.It´s like trying to beat the index of a stock exchange: Some people manage to do it over a few years but they won´t be able to do it assuming long time horizons.
The only place where strategy works is poker. With all other “gambling” you are mislead, believing that strategy can give you an edge. The only edge to watch is the house edge.
I’m not sure you really understand what ‘basic strategy’ is.
The name was originally coined regarding Blackjack, tho it applies to other games such as Video Poker, too.
Basic strategy tells you the correct way to play in order to lose the least. There’s no thought or decision-making involved, it’s a simple chart which, if you follow, you will do the best it is possible to do in that game.
I guess therefore ‘strategy’ is a misleading word. I suppose it could be called a recipe, or a decision chart. Follow it exactly and you will lose the least possible – over time the money you lose will equal the house advantage for the game.
Deviate from it, i.e. play by ‘instinct’, and you will lose more money in the long run.
There’s no real comparison with poker, which is a game of skill. Casino games feature no skill – memorise the chart and you will play the best it is possible to play, and lose the least it is possible to lose.
No-one ever said basic strategy allows you to beat the casino – quite the opposite. It just ensures you lose as little as possible, and are playing to the published HA. Play basic strategy BJ and you will lose roughly 0.5% in the long run (depends on the rules used) – play by instinct and you’ll lose 2+%.
